Owing to a traditionally quiet newsweek and perhaps somewhat sluggish, post-holiday bloggers looking for an easy article, the first week of January brings a crop of annual Prediction articles. Not that I fall into that category. Of course, nobody really knows what’s going to happen in 2011, least of all, me, but here’s my shot:
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- Gestures Will Be Huge — touchscreens are everywhere and every video game console has a gesture-based controller now so I expect some interesting swiping, shaking, and waving on the interface front.
IPO Madness — the market has so much pent up thirst and some ripe prospects that 2011 will be a year that the tech IPO dry-spell breaks.
The Big Apple — $APPL will become the largest company in the world [vis-á-vis market cap]. As of writing, it has crested $300 Billion putting it within swiping distance of Exxon. Not bad for a company on its deathbed in the late 90′s
1. App Everything — I admit that I’m a ravenous App store user for both iPhone and iPad. Why? It’s not that there are hundreds of thousands super useful (Evernote), cool (Flipbook), and fun (Angry Birds) apps on the market. It’s not that they are usually fairly cheap (<$5 in most cases) or even free. It’s that it’s so easy to browse and buy them. With always-on Internet (either through wireless or wifi) and a store that’s open 24/7/365 you can add new software in seconds. It’s the ultimate impulse buy.
Apple didn’t create create the market model but they certainly showed how to make it big. Now virtually everyone with a mobile platform is on the scene with varying degrees of success. With Apple poised to launch an App Store for Macs for traditional application software, and Valve’s Steam making a significant dent in game distribution, I expect that 2011 will be the year that buying apps transitions en masse from a shrink-wrapped box to a button click.
2. Bye-bye Books — I love books. They have a permanence and solidity to them. You can write in the margins. The are durable and portable. They have unlimited battery life. But they are big, and heavy, and expensive, and they are real so when I want one I have to put on a coat and trudge to the book store or library, or order them and patiently wait for delivery days later.
We’ve been playing around with eBooks or eReaders or eWhatevers for a few years now, but with Amazon’s Kindle hitting top-seller-ever territory for Christmas 2010, and the iPad in millions of hands, plus a slew of lesser players (nook, kobo, Sony) from the usual electronics giants we’ve crossed the tipping point. Once hardware costs drops to the magic $49.99 price point (roughly the price of 2 new-release hardcovers) I expect the market will blow wide open, which I expect with happen by the holidays next year.
3. Periodicals are Already Dead – Unlike books, which don’t translate well into on-screen reading due to length, short-form content like magazines and newspapers have been ravaged by the Internet and mobile devices. These disruptors can also act as their salvation if the publishing houses, notoriously resistant to change and grasping emerging technology, finally take their ink-stained hands off of their monolithic presses and capitalize on their real asset, the vast pools of journalistic, editorial, and design talent at their disposal. Despite all the shifts in content delivery, people still want timely, well-written, well-produced content, to fill their devices.
The rise of blogs, citizen journalism, Twitter, and other new media tools have filled the vacuum around old-guard publications bound to rigid periodical publications schedules, but if the majors actually start to distribute content online in a meaningful way, they might be able to steal back the crown *if* they can slip free of the old-media anchor around their necks. In the meantime, 2011 will be a boneyard for magazines and periodicals.
4. Stream a Little Stream — Many of us who have been around for a while remember streaming video in the late 90′s/early 00′s and the bufferingbufferingbuffering that accompanied it. Now, with broadband widely available, wireless networks, better video formats, and a public used to buying media online from iTunes, streaming high-quality video to your mobile phone, tablet, or TV is not only feasible, but it works well enough that your grandma can do it. Music primed people for delivery of their entertainment in bits and bytes across a wire, and the next step is moving from earbuds to the living room television. With Netflix on everything, the new stream-only Apple TV a huge seller, Google TV and a fistful of others (Boxee, Hulu, and even venerable Youtube) 2011 is the year for streaming to hit, uh, mainstream.
5. Socialize, Localize — Two great flavours, now together? I’d say 2009 was the year of Social Networks came of age and 2010 was when various localization services rose in stature riding on their coattails. The benefit has been a foggy one in some cases: people are using Foursquare and Gowalla seemingly for fun and bragging rights, and others have found success in the commercial realm (Groupon and its army of bargain du jour clones). The fact is, that Social networks do a great job of connecting people from all over, but the real value is connecting you with people nearby. Someone will figure this out and wrap it in a cool mobile app with a strong revenue model and make a billion.
6. The Big Crash — The Cloud has been a big deal in computing and drives many a startup (AffinityClick included). However, the cloud is ephemeral, hidden from the user behind the shiny face of a web service. Consequently we have given little thought to putting our data there or using apps that reside there with little regards to where there is or how it’s tended. Out of sight (or perhaps, out of ‘site’ is more fitting), out of mind. Internet services have had occasional service outages and the odd hiccup, and usually the worst result is an error page or a bunch of hand-wringing on Twitter (or Facebook if it’s Twitter that’s down).
I think 2011 will bring a major cloud catastrophe: a major service (or maybe services) will go dark for a while, and more significantly, data will evaporate. And we’ll survive, but become wiser, and hopefully we’ll think a little harder about where our data lives and who’s keeping it. So 2011, like every other, is the Year of the Backup.
7. Mini Predictions
So there you have it. 2011 will be interesting because a lot of the emerging technology and content delivery mechanisms we’ve seen in the first decade of the Millennium will reach a point of commercial maturity and start to take advantage of the unstoppable force of mass market scale. But alas, still no jet packs.

